Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 78

Detroit Lions 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(9:52) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to PHI 32, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-B.Covey to PHI 34 for 2 yards (23-M.Hughes).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.93 EP
64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 78, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model