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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 7

Detroit Lions 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 32-D.Swift left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 7, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model