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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 5

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(:09) 4-J.Elliott 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 5, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model