Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 38 – Detroit Lions 28

(12:49) 8-A.Siposs punts 48 yards to DET 17, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-K.Raymond to DET 20 for 3 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.26 EP
67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 65, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model