Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 84

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:41) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to SF 43, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-57-J.Sanborn.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.20 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model