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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Sunday 2022-09-11 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

SF
56.0%
CHI
44.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.216 vs Trey Lance (SF) +0.129 EPA/dropback
  • CHI offense: -0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 20
–
CHI 19
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

SF

Daniel Brunskill G Out Hamstring
George Kittle TE Questionable Groin

CHI

Velus Jones WR Doubtful Hamstring
Dominique Robinson DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 10
–
CHI 19

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:17 TD SF (10:17) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – CHI 0
  • Q3 08:26 FG SF (8:26) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – CHI 0
  • Q3 05:45 TD CHI (5:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 18-D.Pettis for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – CHI 6
  • Q4 12:50 TD CHI (12:50) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 19-E.St. Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – CHI 13
  • Q4 07:24 TD CHI (7:24) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – CHI 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 17 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:41) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to SF 43, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-57-J.Sanborn.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 18 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 52%

    (5:05) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 32 yards to CHI 8, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 19 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:13) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to SF 36, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (:44) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to CHI 6, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 6 for no gain (33-T.Moore).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:55) 16-T.Gill punts 58 yards to SF 32, Center-48-P.Scales. 3-R.McCloud to SF 48 for 16 yards (84-R.Griffin).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:55) 16-T.Gill punts 55 yards to SF 17, Center-48-P.Scales. 3-R.McCloud to SF 24 for 7 yards (44-M.Adams).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:52) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 35 yards to CHI 24, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-30-G.Odum.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (8:26) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (1:44) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:43) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete short right to 44-K.Juszczyk.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 39%

    (2:37) 16-T.Gill punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 79 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete deep middle to 11-B.Aiyuk.