Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 72

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(8:55) 16-T.Gill punts 55 yards to SF 17, Center-48-P.Scales. 3-R.McCloud to SF 24 for 7 yards (44-M.Adams).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.04 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model