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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 79

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Chicago Bears 19

What Actually Happened

(1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete deep middle to 11-B.Aiyuk.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.27 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -1.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 36, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model