4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 32 yards to CHI 8, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.33 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model