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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 67

Houston Texans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 64 yards to DEN 3, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Washington to DEN 16 for 13 yards (23-E.Murray; 46-J.Weeks). PENALTY on DEN-83-A.Beck, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP