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Houston Texans

HC Lovie Smith
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Denver Broncos

HC Nathaniel Hackett
Sunday 2022-09-18 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

HOU
31.2%
DEN
68.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Davis Mills (HOU): -0.106 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • HOU defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • DEN offense: +0.010 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 17
–
DEN 23
Projected margin: DEN by 6 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

HOU

Justin Britt C Out Not injury related - personal matter
Brevin Jordan TE Questionable Ankle

DEN

K.J. Hamler WR Out Knee
Quinn Meinerz G Out Hamstring
Billy Turner T Questionable Knee
K'Waun Williams CB Questionable Wrist
Randy Gregory DE Questionable Shoulder
Josey Jewell LB Questionable Calf
DeShawn Williams DT Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 9
–
DEN 16

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:33 FG DEN (5:33) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. HOU 0 – DEN 3
  • Q1 02:23 FG HOU (2:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 3 – DEN 3
  • Q2 07:24 FG HOU (7:24) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 6 – DEN 3
  • Q2 00:23 FG DEN (:23) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. HOU 6 – DEN 6
  • Q3 08:36 FG HOU (8:36) 7-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 9 – DEN 6
  • Q4 12:42 TD DEN (12:42) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 82-E.Saubert for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – DEN 12
  • Q4 03:41 FG DEN (3:41) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. Penalty on HOU-1-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined. HOU 9 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 64 yards to DEN 3, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Washington to DEN 16 for 13 yards (23-E.Murray; 46-J.Weeks). PENALTY on DEN-83-A.Beck, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 18.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 34%

    (10:54) 17-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to DEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Washington to DEN 35 for 19 yards (29-M.Stewart).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (5:33) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 89%

    (2:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 32%

    (12:59) 17-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 11 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 84%

    (7:24) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:50) 17-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to HOU 33, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-83-A.Beck.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 16 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:18) 11-C.Johnston punts 64 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Washington to DEN 24 for 15 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis; 46-J.Weeks).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (:23) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 95%

    (10:27) 31-D.Pierce left tackle to DEN 9 for 5 yards (49-A.Singleton; 22-K.Jackson).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (8:36) 7-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 30%

    (6:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to HOU 44 for 6 yards (24-D.Stingley). HOU-24-D.Stingley was injured during the play.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 52%

    (3:09) 17-C.Waitman punts 32 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:45) 11-C.Johnston punts 61 yards to DEN 26, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Washington to DEN 38 for 12 yards (29-M.Stewart, 46-J.Weeks). Penalty on DEN-83-A.Beck, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 14 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 42%

    (9:55) 11-C.Johnston punts 31 yards to DEN 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 16 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 74%

    (3:41) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. Penalty on HOU-1-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 63%

    (1:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 12-N.Collins.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 16 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:04) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-D.King to HOU 25 for 7 yards (94-A.Patrick).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 11 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 13-B.Cooks.