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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 49

Denver Broncos 3 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 17-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.52 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model