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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 26

Houston Texans 3 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.74 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 36, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model