4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 50

Denver Broncos 6 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(6:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to HOU 44 for 6 yards (24-D.Stingley). HOU-24-D.Stingley was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.72 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model