4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 41

Denver Broncos 6 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 17-C.Waitman punts 32 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.57 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP