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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 48

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 17-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.85 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model