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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 32

Denver Broncos 13 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. Penalty on HOU-1-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model