Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 68

Denver Broncos 16 – Houston Texans 9

(1:04) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-D.King to HOU 25 for 7 yards (94-A.Patrick).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.76 EP
71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -1.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model