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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 64

Houston Texans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to DEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Washington to DEN 35 for 19 yards (29-M.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.68 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 22, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model