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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 7 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(8:32) Direct snap to 30-A.Ingold. 30-A.Ingold up the middle to MIA 35 for 1 yard (58-M.Pierce; 93-C.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.30 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model