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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2022-09-18 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

MIA
50.2%
BAL
49.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA defense: -0.165 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BAL defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 24
–
BAL 23
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

MIA

Cethan Carter TE Out Concussion
Salvon Ahmed RB Questionable Heel
Terron Armstead T Questionable Toe
Hunter Long TE Questionable Ankle
Christian Wilkins DT Questionable Back
Cedrick Wilson WR Questionable Toe

BAL

James Proche WR Doubtful Groin
Ronnie Stanley T Doubtful Ankle
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Groin
Brandon Stephens CB Questionable Quadricep
J.K. Dobbins RB Questionable Knee
Travis Jones DT Questionable Knee
Marcus Peters CB Questionable Knee
Patrick Ricard FB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 42
–
BAL 38

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 33 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 15:00 TD BAL 7-J.Sanders kicks 68 yards from MIA 35 to BAL -3. 13-D.Duvernay for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 10:58 TD MIA (10:58) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – BAL 7
  • Q2 10:54 TD BAL (10:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – BAL 13
  • Q2 04:07 TD BAL (4:07) 77-D.Faalele reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – BAL 20
  • Q2 00:33 TD BAL (:33) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 10-D.Robinson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – BAL 27
  • Q3 07:57 TD MIA (7:57) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – BAL 28
  • Q3 00:38 TD BAL (:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right guard for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Jackson sets record for 100-yd, rushing games by QB. MIA 14 – BAL 34
  • Q4 12:18 TD MIA (12:18) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 85-R.Cracraft for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – BAL 35
  • Q4 07:54 TD MIA (7:54) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 27 – BAL 35
  • Q4 05:27 TD MIA (5:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 34 – BAL 35
  • Q4 02:23 FG BAL (2:23) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. Penalty on MIA-20-J.Bethel, Defensive Offside, declined. MIA 35 – BAL 38
  • Q4 00:19 TD MIA (:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 41 – BAL 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 63%

    (5:12) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews up the middle to MIA 34 for 3 yards (94-C.Wilkins).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (14:47) 77-D.Faalele reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 1, recovered by BAL-28-M.Davis at MIA 6.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:32) Direct snap to 30-A.Ingold. 30-A.Ingold up the middle to MIA 35 for 1 yard (58-M.Pierce; 93-C.Campbell).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 18 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:57) 4-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to BAL 29, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 34 for 5 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:00) 1-T.Tagovailoa up the middle to MIA 46 for 1 yard (92-J.Madubuike).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:29) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to MIA 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 8-J.Holland to MIA 29 for 8 yards (43-J.Hill).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 28%

    (2:11) 4-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to BAL 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-44-B.Ferguson.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 56%

    (9:16) (Shotgun) 77-D.Faalele reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson left end to MIA 41 for -1 yards (52-E.Roberts, 93-T.Flowers).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:54) 11-J.Stout punts 36 yards to MIA 36, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 72%

    (2:23) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. Penalty on MIA-20-J.Bethel, Defensive Offside, declined.