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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 7 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 1-T.Tagovailoa up the middle to MIA 46 for 1 yard (92-J.Madubuike).

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.32 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -1.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model