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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 51

Miami Dolphins 14 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 4-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to BAL 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-44-B.Ferguson.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model