Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 35 – Miami Dolphins 28

(6:54) 11-J.Stout punts 36 yards to MIA 36, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model