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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 33

Baltimore Ravens 35 – Miami Dolphins 35

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. Penalty on MIA-20-J.Bethel, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.58 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model