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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 14-R.Wright punts 48 yards to PHI 22, Center-42-A.DePaola. 18-B.Covey to PHI 23 for 1 yard (45-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model