4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
MIN Away

Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Monday 2022-09-19 · 20:30 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

MIN
42.5%
PHI
57.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23
–
PHI 26
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

MIN

Andrew Booth CB Out Quadricep

PHI

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 7
–
PHI 24

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:14 TD PHI (9:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD PHI (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 16-Q.Watkins for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – PHI 13
  • Q2 09:43 TD MIN (9:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 84-I.Smith for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – PHI 14
  • Q2 02:09 TD PHI (2:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – PHI 20
  • Q2 00:03 FG PHI (:03) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. MIN 7 – PHI 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:44) 14-R.Wright punts 48 yards to PHI 22, Center-42-A.DePaola. 18-B.Covey to PHI 23 for 1 yard (45-T.Dye).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 20 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:46) 8-A.Siposs punts 49 yards to MIN 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 39 for 1 yard (27-Z.McPhearson).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:25) 14-R.Wright punts 38 yards to PHI 18, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:28) 8-A.Siposs punts 43 yards to MIN 26, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (5:12) 14-R.Wright punts 56 yards to PHI 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 18-B.Covey to PHI 15 for 5 yards (98-D.Wonnum).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:31) 14-R.Wright punts 58 yards to PHI 5, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-29-K.Boyd.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 89%

    (3:26) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is BLOCKED (7-P.Peterson), Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs, RECOVERED by MIN-29-K.Boyd at MIN 43. 29-K.Boyd to PHI 30 for 27 yards (8-A.Siposs).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 22%

    (12:01) 8-A.Siposs punts 47 yards to MIN 6, Center-45-R.Lovato. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 10 for 4 yards (3-Z.Pascal; 42-K.Wallace).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 26%

    (4:01) 8-A.Siposs punts 40 yards to MIN 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-3-Z.Pascal.