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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 14-R.Wright punts 38 yards to PHI 18, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.54 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 56, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP