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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 14 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to NYJ 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 46 for 16 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 81, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 38, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model