Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYJ offense: -0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- CLE defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- QB edge to NYJ: Jacoby Brissett (CLE) -0.113 vs Joe Flacco (NYJ) -0.060 EPA/dropback
- NYJ defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- CLE offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 2
NYJ
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:00 TD CLE (5:00) 24-N.Chubb left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – CLE 6
- Q2 13:09 TD NYJ (13:09) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 17-G.Wilson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – CLE 7
- Q2 08:20 TD CLE (8:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 2-A.Cooper for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – CLE 13
- Q2 00:15 TD NYJ (:15) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 20-Br.Hall for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – CLE 14
- Q3 10:01 FG CLE (10:01) 3-C.York 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. NYJ 14 – CLE 17
- Q4 14:24 FG NYJ (14:24) 6-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 17 – CLE 17
- Q4 09:29 TD CLE (9:29) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 17 – CLE 23
- Q4 02:02 TD CLE (2:02) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 17 – CLE 30
- Q4 01:32 TD NYJ (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass deep right to 84-C.Davis for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 23 – CLE 30
- Q4 00:25 TD NYJ (:25) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short middle to 17-G.Wilson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 30 – CLE 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EPp(convert) 69%
(13:39) 7-B.Mann punts 50 yards to CLE 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-D.Felton.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(1:40) (Punt formation) 7-B.Mann pass short right to 16-J.Smith pushed ob at CLE 37 for 17 yards (38-A.Green).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 12 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(1:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to NYJ 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 46 for 16 yards (51-J.Kunaszyk).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(10:01) 3-C.York 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 19%
(6:10) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to CLE 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(4:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to NYJ 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 53%
(14:24) 6-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(7:51) 7-B.Mann punts 44 yards to CLE 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-D.Felton to CLE 31 for 13 yards (21-A.Davis; 88-K.Yeboah).
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 90 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(2:41) 7-B.Mann punts 47 yards to CLE 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-D.Felton to CLE 43 for no gain (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on NYJ-36-M.Harris, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 43.