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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 60

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 7-B.Mann punts 50 yards to CLE 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-D.Felton.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.44 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP