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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 4

Cleveland Browns 14 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 3-C.York 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP