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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 62

New York Jets 17 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 7-B.Mann punts 44 yards to CLE 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-D.Felton to CLE 31 for 13 yards (21-A.Davis; 88-K.Yeboah).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.95 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model