Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 90

New York Jets 17 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 7-B.Mann punts 47 yards to CLE 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-D.Felton to CLE 43 for no gain (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on NYJ-36-M.Harris, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 43.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.66 EP
61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 90, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model