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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 39

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete deep left to 6-D.Gray.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.00 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model