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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2022-09-18 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 🌧 Rain Spread 8.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

SEA
56.1%
SF
43.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Trey Lance (SF): -0.177 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 21
–
SF 20
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SEA

Joey Blount S Doubtful Hamstring
Justin Coleman CB Questionable Calf
Artie Burns CB Questionable Groin

SF

Daniel Brunskill G Out Hamstring
George Kittle TE Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 7
–
SF 27

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:20 FG SF (9:20) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SEA 0 – SF 3
  • Q1 01:30 FG SF (1:30) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SEA 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 11:28 TD SF (11:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left to 82-R.Dwelley for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 22 YAC SEA 0 – SF 12
  • Q2 01:29 TD SF (1:29) 44-K.Juszczyk up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – SF 19
  • Q3 05:39 TD SEA (5:39) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is BLOCKED (27-T.Woolen), Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky, RECOVERED by SEA-30-M.Jackson at SEA 14. 30-M.Jackson for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – SF 20
  • Q4 01:54 TD SF (1:54) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – SF 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (9:20) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to SF 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%

    (1:30) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to SF 18, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 22 for 4 yards (40-D.Johnson).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 52%

    (7:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete deep left to 6-D.Gray.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to SEA 25, Center-46-T.Pepper. 37-X.Crawford MUFFS catch, touched at SEA 24, RECOVERED by SF-82-R.Dwelley at SEA 22.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (13:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to SF 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 29 for 5 yards (44-N.Bellore).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (8:32) (No Huddle) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to SEA 8 for 3 yards (56-J.Brooks).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (5:39) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is BLOCKED (27-T.Woolen), Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky, RECOVERED by SEA-30-M.Jackson at SEA 14. 30-M.Jackson for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:33) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (15:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to SF 25, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 20%

    (12:42) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to SEA 8, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (1:54) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.