4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to SF 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 29 for 5 yards (44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.96 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP