Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 54

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Seattle Seahawks 7

(1:33) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.98 EP
65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -2.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model