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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to SEA 8, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.91 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model