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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
San Francisco 49ers
4th & 1 at the 1
San Francisco 49ers 20 – Seattle Seahawks 7
What Actually Happened
(1:54) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.51 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth -0.49 EP
KICK
+1.75 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT
-0.62 EP
- Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
