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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to SF 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.22 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model