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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.21 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP