Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 6

(13:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to SF 18, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 22 for 4 yards (40-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model