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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 87

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 4-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to TB 33, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden ran ob at 50 for 17 yards (46-A.Prentice).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +1.06 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 45, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model