4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
TB Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2022-09-18 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

TB
56.9%
NO
43.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to NO: Jameis Winston (NO) +0.124 vs Tom Brady (TB) +0.111 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TB 23
–
NO 21
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

TB

Chris Godwin WR Out Hamstring
Donovan Smith T Doubtful Elbow
Zyon McCollum CB Doubtful Hamstring
Mike Evans WR Questionable Calf
Leonard Fournette RB Questionable Hamstring
Russell Gage WR Questionable Hamstring
Julio Jones WR Questionable Knee
Breshad Perriman WR Questionable Knee
Tristan Wirfs T Questionable Abdomen

NO

Paulson Adebo CB Out Ankle
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Rib
Mark Ingram RB Questionable Ankle
Tre'Quan Smith WR Questionable Shoulder
Alontae Taylor CB Questionable Hip
Dwayne Washington RB Questionable Hamstring
Jameis Winston QB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 20
–
NO 10

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:06 FG NO (9:06) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. TB 0 – NO 3
  • Q3 06:49 FG TB (6:49) 3-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – NO 3
  • Q4 07:49 TD TB (7:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 16-B.Perriman for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 28, YAC 0 TB 9 – NO 3
  • Q4 05:55 FG TB (5:55) 3-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 13 – NO 3
  • Q4 04:23 TD TB (4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left intended for 5-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards at TB 32. 32-M.Edwards for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – NO 3
  • Q4 03:07 TD NO (3:07) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – NO 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (9:06) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:43) 4-B.Gillikin punts 35 yards to TB 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (12:17) 7-L.Fournette right guard to NO 9 for -1 yards (96-C.Granderson).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:48) 4-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to TB 33, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden ran ob at 50 for 17 yards (46-A.Prentice).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 37%

    (8:27) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to NO 7, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:11) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 13 for no gain.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:56) 5-J.Camarda punts 49 yards to NO 37, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harty to NO 31 for -6 yards (79-P.O'Connor).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 50%

    (:28) 4-B.Gillikin punts 30 yards to TB 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:55) 5-J.Camarda punts 39 yards to NO 16, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:00) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to TB 38, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 1-J.Darden. PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TB 38.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 82%

    (6:49) 3-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:49) 5-J.Camarda punts 26 yards to NO 45, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (5:55) 3-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 55%

    (2:46) 5-J.Camarda punts 32 yards to NO 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds. NO 6-M.Maye, wrist, QUESTIONABLE to return.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:14) 5-J.Camarda punts 41 yards to NO 23, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 77 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 11-D.Harty ran ob at NO 32 for 9 yards. Pass 9, YAC 0