4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to NO 7, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.20 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model