Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to TB 38, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 1-J.Darden. PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TB 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.19 EP
67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model