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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 3-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.27 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model