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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 12

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.73 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model