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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 5-J.Camarda punts 41 yards to NO 23, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.45 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -2.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 22, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model